A Victorian election predictor using the 2025 Senate results as a basis
With One Nation continuing to do well and the Victorian state election coming up, here's a predictor for Victoria.
As always, I'm not claiming any serious predictive power! Every party campaigns differently between elections and people vote differently in House and Senate elections.
This also ignores other parties and independents, as the numbers are based on Senate votes.
The default numbers in the calculator (about 17% Greens, 39% Labor, 34% LNP and 9% One Nation) are based on the 2025 result (specifically, the four-party-preferred calculation).
For something more like September 2026 polling, try 14% Greens, 24% Labor, 29% LNP and 22% One Nation.
Enter the statewide percentages and select Calculate to draw the graph.