A Queensland state election predictor using the 2022 Senate results as a basis
In the last seven years more and more people are thinking about party- preferred results in the Senate context, which is great to see!
This page presents an updated-data version of the previous predictor, since voting patterns have changed a little bit from 2016 to 2022.
As always, I'm not claiming any serious predictive power! Every party campaigns differently between elections and focuses on different electorates at State elections than they do in Senate elections.
As always, a big limitation is the lack of KAP representation. You should make your own conclusions around which seats KAP will hold, gain or lose and adjust totals/narratives accordingly.
The default numbers in the calculator (about 17% Greens, 28% Labor, 40% LNP and 14% One Nation) are based on the Senate results from 2022.