nparty
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Queensland state projections from Federal Senate voting data With the resurgence of One Nation, there's some need to model how they'd perform running all over Queensland in a state election.
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A Queensland state election predictor using the 2016 Senate results as a basis Following on from previous work projecting the 2016 Senate results onto the new Queensland state seats, I thought I might try a non-uniform swing model.
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QLD state predictor from Senate 4PP - how'd it do? Any predictor is not much good unless it's been tested.
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A Queensland state election predictor using the 2022 Senate results as a basis The same non-uniform swing model, updated for 2024 with Senate data from 2022 rather than 2016.
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nparty - comparing House and Senate
My original goal with n-party-preferred analysis, back in 2016-2017, was to apply One Nation’s 2016 Senate performance to state seats to get a good idea of their between-seats variation. I could then apply state-level aggregate polling numbers to estimate results in each seat.