A Federal election predictor using the 2025 Senate results as a basis
Now that One Nation is doing so well federally it seems useful to have a version of the predictor using federal boundaries instead of Queensland state boundaries.
As always, I'm not claiming any serious predictive power! Every party campaigns differently between elections and people vote differently in House and Senate elections.
This also ignores other parties and independents, particularly the "Teals", as the numbers are based on Senate votes.
Note that the ACT is excluded here as One Nation didn't run in the Senate there in 2025, and David Pocock also would have a big impact on the results.
The default numbers in the calculator (about 16% Greens, 39% Labor, 34% LNP and 11% One Nation) are based on the 2025 result (specifically, the four-party-preferred calculation).
For something more like June 2026 polling, try 17% Greens, 30% Labor, 20% LNP and 33% One Nation.