posts
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A Federal election predictor using the 2025 Senate results as a basis The same non-uniform swing model, updated for 2026 with Senate data from 2025 rather than 2016.
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People, Jobs, PT
Continuing on from previous efforts, here are some maps detailing population & job density overlaid by public transport.
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Train Speed and Stop Spacing Explorer
For urban rail, stopping distances (station spacing) are often quite short - on the order of 1-2 kilometres. This is because people won’t walk further than a kilometre. Wider spacing requires an all-stops and express configuration, perhaps combined with the use of feeder buses.
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Identifying Frequent Stops with GTFS
Sometimes when I’m doing analysis I find myself needing to figure out how many services each route (or stop/station) has in a week, or if a location has frequent service.
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nparty - comparing House and Senate
My original goal with n-party-preferred analysis, back in 2016-2017, was to apply One Nation’s 2016 Senate performance to state seats to get a good idea of their between-seats variation. I could then apply state-level aggregate polling numbers to estimate results in each seat.
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Effective frequency calculator
If a station gets four trains per hour, that’s one every fifteen minutes, right?
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A Queensland state election predictor using the 2022 Senate results as a basis The same non-uniform swing model, updated for 2024 with Senate data from 2022 rather than 2016.
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Thoughts on Brisbane Metro
Brisbane’s busway network is a victim of its own success. The “Metro” project, while misleadingly named, is what’s possible as an incremental upgrade.
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Modelling SA1-booth correspondences
Elections have geographic aspects: people live somewhere and often your neighbours are similar to you socio-economically. Further, both boundaries and polling places can differ across the three levels of government, and they change over time.
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SEQ Rail: the next decades
Cross River Rail will soon be completed.